In his book titled “Geopolitics for the End Time: From the Pandemic to the Climate Crisis,” Bruno Maçães proposes that pandemics and climate change could bring about significant transformations in the global order, similar to the impact of wars. Chinese President Xi Jinping acknowledged the challenges arising from the pandemic, disruptions in the supply chain, and strained relations with the West during a study session at the Chinese Communist Party’s Party School in January 2021. Despite these obstacles, Xi expressed confidence in China’s resilience and determination to navigate these turbulent times.
The global spread of the pandemic exposed the limited ability of Western societies to swiftly mobilize their citizens towards a common objective. In contrast, China exhibited a mobilized society capable of uniting its population and directing their efforts in a unified manner. Mao’s famous quote, “Everything under heaven is in utter chaos, the situation is excellent,” resonates with China’s current perspective. This mobilization grants China a competitive edge in navigating challenging times and potentially positions it as a prominent global power.
China’s Pandemic Response: Shaping History and Challenging the West
The COVID-19 pandemic, initially a threat to China, has transformed into an opportunity that has reshaped the course of history. The pandemic effectively quelled protests in Hong Kong, ensuring political stability within mainland China. Additionally, China’s effective handling of the pandemic sparked a global competition to contain the virus, bolstering the reputation of the Chinese Communist Party.
The rivalry between China and the United States is now celebrated, and the narrative of national rejuvenation has reached its pinnacle as the party approached its centenary in July 2021. The Chinese Foreign Minister emphasized the need for multiple models and civilizations in the world to avoid stagnation and ensure sustained growth. The current trend of a “rising East and a declining West” was underscored during a significant meeting between Chinese and American diplomats in Alaska, showcasing China’s evident confidence.
China’s Economic Ascendancy: Shaping Global Forecasts
The global economy has been profoundly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and amidst the turmoil, China has emerged as one of the few nations to navigate the crisis successfully. In 2020, China experienced a remarkable 1.1 percentage point increase in its share of global GDP, the most significant surge in decades. This unexpected surge has prompted economists to reassess their predictions regarding the timeline for China surpassing the United States as the world’s largest economy.
Leading research institutions, such as the Japan Center for Economic Research and the Centre for Economics and Business Research in London, now anticipate that China could claim this position as early as 2028, several years ahead of previous projections.
These forecasts are contingent upon the developments unfolding in the United States, which has exhibited rapid growth due to robust stimulus measures and a successful vaccination campaign. While the Federal Reserve anticipates a potential inflationary increase surpassing its 2% target this year, a crucial question arises: Which country is cultivating a more sustainable and enduring growth trajectory?
